The probability is 1 in 4,000,000 that a single auto trip in the United States will result in a fatality. ?
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The probability is 1 in 4,000,000 that a single auto trip in the United States will result in a fatality. ?
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Over a lifetime, an average U.S. driver takes 50,000 trips. (a) What is the probability of a fatal accident over a lifetime? Explain your reasoning carefully. Hint: Assume independent events. Why might the assumption of independence be violated? (b) Why might a driver be tempted not to use a seat belt “just on this trip”?
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thud.fan
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Most of the influences that a driver behind the wheel must deal with are beyond the driver's control, such as climate, traffic, terrain, even time. The only two things that a driver has control (and responsibility) for are his/her own vehicle and his/her own self. If a driver operates a vehicle the same way each time out of the box with complete focus and attention to detail, chances are that a collision could be avoided. But humans being the way we are with separate and vastly different personalities, attitudes, egos, abilities and other traits, we each drive according to our own whims. In a rural setting with little traffic, there is only a small chance of being in a crash, in an urban or high density population area, the chances increase exponentially.
If a driver is tempted to go without a seat belt 'just on this trip,' then that driver demonstrates a lack of judgment and discipline that can influence others to do the same. There is no rational justification for not buckling up |
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David L
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Ask your math professor.
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