Charles
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Israel would not simply "drop a nuclear bomb or two on Tehran." First off, if they do have them, which isn't official, they don't have an unlimited stock, so two would just be overkill. The Israelis are nothing if not cost-benefit analysts. Their existence relies on their ablility to deal with threats before they strike and to weigh action against inaction. If Israel were to bomb Iran, they would bomb their nuclear reactors, and not with nuclear bombs. Again, that would be overkill and unneccesarily provocative. By conducting a precision strike with smaller conventional weapons, thereby minimizing loss of life, Israel maintains a firmer hold on the moral high ground and world opinion. The strike would, according to experts, be massive in terms of numbers of aircraft and targets involved. Most see an attack, if it were to occur, would happen if upcoming talks between the nations fail (which they likely will). Unfortunately, the Israelis will most likely not get direct U.S. aid, a lose-lose situation for us. Either way, we will be associated with the strike and because we actually do want their nuclear program stopped. If we were to provide aid, good ideas might be: a) infiltrating the target sites with commandos equipped with laser designators, increasing accuracy and limiting loss of life. b) possibly participating in the strike ourselves, hopefully with B-2's, which would be able to avoid Iran's advanced Russian-made anti-aircraft missiles. If we were to participate, we might consider a large-scale attack which could delay Iran's nuclear program for years (aka, a multi-waved air assault--Stealth bombers use radar homing missiles, such as the HARM's, to take down air defence, F-16's and '22's to control the skies, and B-1's/B-52's to deliver the knockout punch) c) using our sophisticated cyber-networking and infiltration capabilities to temporarily hinder Iranian air defense and coordination.
The consequences of any attack, however, could be extremely serious. Iran has the ability to unleash Hezbollah and Hamas on Israel and Western interests across the globe, undoubtedly resulting in loss of life. A dedicated international coalition would have to be committed to combating, rooting out, and annihalating all vestiges of Iranian-sponsored terrorism. Otherwise, the consequences might outweigh the benefits. Either way, nuclear conflict is an extremely, extremely unlikely proposition. |
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