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Analysis: EU prepares for yet another historic moment
At six weeks after any crisis emergency summits convened in late October, qualified political leaders, analysts, investors and the media as historical, critical or decisive for the future euro area, the EU is preparing for another meeting with the same attributes.
Expectations are much higher, emanating moment, justified or not, a certain optimism.
After two meetings of EU leaders in late October resulted in the approval in principle of ambitious measures - increasing European Financial Stability Fund resources (EFSF) to 1.000 billion euros in so-called leverage (leveraging), reduced by 50 % of amounts owed by Greece on behalf of government bonds sold to private creditors and recapitalize European banks over 100 billion.
Markets reacted quickly with skepticism, saying that the lack of technical detail to clearly describe how these measures will be applied to question the whole EU crisis plan. Negotiating these details soon began to delay the decisions being deferred to a meeting Eurogroup (the Ministers of Finance of the euro area) to the next. However, the theoretical interest of international investors from outside Europe, EFSF fund, and therefore the state bond market in the euro area, it seems hard to materialiat.
Meanwhile, bond interest of states to "peripheral" euro area grew rapidly and the banking system now faces a situation more tense and access to finance increasingly more difficult, writes Tuesday.
Thus, the markets continued to fall, but pessimism was soon overthrown by the information published in November and the first days of December on measures to be negotiated at the next EU summit, Thursday and Friday, but also due to concerted action central banks to ease conditions in dollar funding of European credit institutions. Exchanges, commodity markets and the euro are increasing by about 10 days, investors showing optimism about the summit, unlike the situation in October.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel has prepared historical changes to the EU Treaty, which must obtain unanimous approval of European leaders. Changes should include, to calm markets and prevent a financial crisis proportions, tight control over budgets the euro area countries, harsh penalties for governments that will not fit the European standards.
International press is full of information on the sources behind the top EU negotiations. European leaders are considering expanding the mechanisms of action to save the euro area countries, while maintaining the intention to apply the so-called process of leveraging resources to strengthen the EFSF.
European Central Bank looks ready to act more aggressively to combat the crisis that European political leaders will be able to agree on a deep fiscal consolidation and integration in the euro area. However, the institution has greatly facilitated the operations of liquidity, and some hopes that the ECB should adopt a policy of "quantitative easing" similar measures taken by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England following the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
ECB is Thursday, just hours before the official dinner will kick off EU summit, the last monetary policy meeting this year's Governing Council. Markets expected to reduce key interest rate from 1.25% to 1% (same time low reached in 2009 to combat the global crisis), while waiting for clues from institution officials on possible interventions aggressive adds Mediafax
To this, add comments and rumors about the role of IMF in defusing the crisis. IMF officials have had in recent weeks to deny, in turn, speculation that would help prepare a 600 billion euro for Italy and, more recently, that the G20 might think Washington institution with 600 billion dollars to support the effort crisis in Europe.
However, it is said that central banks in the euro area, with the Federal Reserve would provide about the IMF loan program to facilitate interventions in support of Washington creditor countries with problems in Europe.
In this context, stock rise, the euro is gaining against the dollar, bonds and interest on the periphery of the eurozone countries, arrived in October and November to unsustainable levels, retire to more acceptable levels.
French Finance Minister, Francois Baroin, kept saying to give additional security on Wednesday at Canal +, that Merkel and Sarkozy "will not leave the summit" without a solid agreement, fighting decisive crisis.
Pleasant atmosphere seems fueled by speculative transactions on the market, because the data published Wednesday on the financing situation of European banks draws a grim picture. Although the increase exchanges, the euro and lower interest rates might suggest optinism and trust banks have access to financing under normal conditions. In addition, optimism is contradicted by sources, a high German official.
He said Wednesday night on condition of anonymity, that is pessimistic about EU summit because European institutions and governments must accept difficult compromises to approve the proposed Franco-German plan to resolve the crisis decisively.
"Many players still do not understand how serious the situation," he complains, that statement would probably more suitable summit of European leaders last two years.
However, ECB data presented Wednesday showed that Italian banks have borrowed EUR 153.2 billion in November from the central bank emergency liquidity programs, compared to 111.3 billion euros in October, 41.3 billion euros respectively in June.
Euro area banks have reached over 50 billion dollars Wednesday in the first financing operations in U.S. currency carried by the ECB after the world's major central banks intervened jointly by lowering borrowing costs for credit in dollars. Analysts estimate that banks will access only $ 10 billion in the first such operation.
In addition, official sources say that the German government will reactivate next week for an emergency bailout fund, established at the height of the global financial crisis of 2008.
The rating agencies seem to lean towards pessimism. Standard & Poor's has done extensive in recent years, threatening to demote mass ratings euro area countries, including the six AAA on which funding EFSF, then that will reduce even rating the Fund, rated European Union and "notes" given the large European banks. Cascade of demotions with S & P threatening the outcome depends mainly on the summit Thursday and Friday.
A notable moment in the events is the "envelope bomb" Wednesday asked the Director General of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, considered the "face of capitalism" in Germany. Fortunately, the package was intercepted by authorities before reaching at the Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt, according to the press.
Ackermann is Chairman of the Institute for International Finance, the most powerful lobby group of the global financial industry, which negotiates on behalf of private creditors in debt delete a consistent piece of Greece. In fact, Ackermann is one of the most important figures in the negotiations to save the Greek state from bankruptcy.
European leaders are subjected to tremendous pressures from the market, from international partners, mainly the U.S., but also internally, nationally, where you need to manage social and political effects of the crisis. Sarkozy will seek another term next year as President, and in Germany are scheduled general local elections in 2012 and 2013.
Secretary General of the U.S. Treasury, Timothy Geithner, is diplomatic tour in Europe, where he voiced confidence in the Franco-German plan to resolve the crisis and the euro area's ability to reach a consensus.
Change the EU Treaty, the most important medium and long term measure considered by European leaders two years after the outbreak of the crisis, however, is a challenging objective for which they could reach referendums in Member States for consultation popukaţiei , a process whose outcome is a long difficult to predict.
Summit Thursday and Friday could bring such an agreement in principle to change the Treaty, accompanied by modifications in urgent European rules can be applied automatically by consulting the European Council, European Central Bank and the European Parliament.
President Basescu said on Wednesday that Romania will support the European Council for immediate changes to regulations on the excessive deficit procedure, version requiring no ratification in the Member States and then reverse to resort to changing the EU Treaty.
Basescu said that the change at this point would require Treaty ratification by parliament or referendum in each Member State, which would take up to two years. The President said that the current situation, the EU needs urgent solutions and showed that the best option would be amending the protocol governing the excessive deficit.
The President also said that euro area Member State with a debt of over 60% of GDP should submit schedules to reduce the indicator below the threshold, and especially the EU and the euro area should commit to respect threshold of 3% of GDP budget deficit by adding it to the Constitution.
He said that Member States should establish national mechanisms for automatic correction of the deficit, ie if the budget fails to fall into a deficit within 3% of GDP, each government should have established mechanisms to increase revenues and decrease costs, separately or combined.
Basescu said that Romania is currently "very affected" by the situation in the euro area, saying the country "pay a bill late heavy convincing decisions in the euro area". Asked if the delay such decisions result in damage to the population of Romania, Basescu said yes.
The crisis in the euro area gradually degenerates into recession because of low confidence and challenging conditions in credit markets, a situation which directly affect Romania's exports. However, the domestic banking system depends largely on the "health" of European banks.
Unprecedented situation and question the timing of euro adoption in the states of Central and Eastern Europe, the consequences of the crisis in this regard is difficult to anticipat.Aşteptările are far larger and emit time, justified or not, some optimism.
After two meetings of EU leaders in late October resulted in the approval in principle of ambitious measures - increasing European Financial Stability Fund resources (EFSF) to 1.000 billion euros in so-called leverage (leveraging), reduced by 50 % of amounts owed by Greece on behalf of government bonds sold to private creditors and recapitalize European banks over 100 billion.
Markets reacted quickly with skepticism, saying that the lack of technical detail to clearly describe how these measures will be applied to question the whole EU crisis plan. Negotiating these details soon began to delay the decisions being deferred to a meeting Eurogroup (the Ministers of Finance of the euro area) to the next. However, the theoretical interest of international investors from outside Europe, EFSF fund, and therefore the state bond market in the euro area, it seems hard to materialiat.
Meanwhile, bond interest of states to "peripheral" euro area grew rapidly and the banking system now faces a situation more tense and access to finance increasingly difficult.
Thus, the markets continued to fall, but pessimism was soon overthrown by the information published in November and the first days of December on measures to be negotiated at the next EU summit, Thursday and Friday, but also due to concerted action central banks to ease conditions in dollar funding of European credit institutions. Exchanges, commodity markets and the euro are increasing by about 10 days, investors showing optimism about the summit, unlike the situation in October.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel has prepared historical changes to the EU Treaty, which must obtain unanimous approval of European leaders. Changes should include, to calm markets and prevent a financial crisis proportions, tight control over budgets the euro area countries, harsh penalties for governments that will not fit the European standards.
International press is full of information on the sources behind the top EU negotiations. European leaders are considering expanding the mechanisms of action to save the euro area countries, while maintaining the intention to apply the so-called process of leveraging resources to strengthen the EFSF.
European Central Bank looks ready to act more aggressively to combat the crisis that European political leaders will be able to agree on a deep fiscal consolidation and integration in the euro area. However, the institution has greatly facilitated the operations of liquidity, and some hopes that the ECB should adopt a policy of "quantitative easing" similar measures taken by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England in the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, writes Mediafax
ECB is Thursday, just hours before the official dinner will kick off EU summit, the last monetary policy meeting this year's Governing Council. Markets expected to reduce key interest rate from 1.25% to 1% (same time low reached in 2009 to combat the global crisis), while waiting for clues from institution officials on any aggressive intervention.
To this, add comments and rumors about the role of IMF in defusing the crisis. IMF officials have had in recent weeks to deny, in turn, speculation that would help prepare a 600 billion euro for Italy and, more recently, that the G20 might think Washington institution with 600 billion dollars to support the effort crisis in Europe.
However, it is said that central banks in the euro area, with the Federal Reserve would provide about the IMF loan program to facilitate interventions in support of Washington creditor countries with problems in Europe.
In this context, stock rise, the euro is gaining against the dollar, bonds and interest on the periphery of the eurozone countries, arrived in October and November to unsustainable levels, retire to more acceptable levels.
French Finance Minister, Francois Baroin, kept saying to give additional security on Wednesday at Canal +, that Merkel and Sarkozy "will not leave the summit" without a solid agreement, fighting decisive crisis.
Pleasant atmosphere seems fueled by speculative transactions on the market, because the data published Wednesday on the financing situation of European banks draws a grim picture. Although the increase exchanges, the euro and lower interest rates might suggest optinism and trust banks have access to financing under normal conditions. In addition, optimism is contradicted by sources, a high German official.
He said Wednesday night on condition of anonymity, that is pessimistic about EU summit because European institutions and governments must accept difficult compromises to approve the proposed Franco-German plan to resolve the crisis decisively.
"Many players still do not understand how serious the situation," he complains, that statement would probably more suitable summit of European leaders last two years.
However, ECB data presented Wednesday showed that Italian banks have borrowed EUR 153.2 billion in November from the central bank emergency liquidity programs, compared to 111.3 billion euros in October, 41.3 billion euros respectively in June.
Euro area banks have reached over 50 billion dollars Wednesday in the first financing operations in U.S. currency carried by the ECB after the world's major central banks intervened jointly by lowering borrowing costs for credit in dollars. Analysts estimate that banks will access only $ 10 billion in the first such operation.
In addition, official sources say that the German government will reactivate next week for an emergency bailout fund, established at the height of the global financial crisis of 2008.
The rating agencies seem to lean towards pessimism. Standard & Poor's has done extensive in recent years, threatening to demote mass ratings euro area countries, including the six AAA on which funding EFSF, then that will reduce even rating the Fund, rated European Union and "notes" given the large European banks. Cascade of demotions with S & P threatening the outcome depends mainly on the summit Thursday and Friday.
A notable moment in the events is the "envelope bomb" Wednesday asked the Director General of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, considered the "face of capitalism" in Germany. Fortunately, the package was intercepted by authorities before reaching at the Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt, according to the press.
Ackermann is Chairman of the Institute for International Finance, the most powerful lobby group of the global financial industry, which negotiates on behalf of private creditors in debt delete a consistent piece of Greece. In fact, Ackermann is one of the most important figures in the negotiations to save the Greek state from bankruptcy.
European leaders are subjected to tremendous pressures from the market, from international partners, mainly the U.S., but also internally, nationally, where you need to manage social and political effects of the crisis. Sarkozy will seek another term next year as President, and in Germany are scheduled general local elections in 2012 and 2013.
Secretary General of the U.S. Treasury, Timothy Geithner, is diplomatic tour in Europe, where he voiced confidence in the Franco-German plan to resolve the crisis and the euro area's ability to reach a consensus.
Change the EU Treaty, the most important medium and long term measure considered by European leaders two years after the outbreak of the crisis, however, is a challenging objective for which they could reach referendums in Member States for consultation popukaţiei , a process whose outcome is a long difficult to predict.
Summit Thursday and Friday could bring such an agreement in principle to change the Treaty, accompanied by modifications in urgent European rules can be applied automatically by consulting the European Council, European Central Bank and the European Parliament.
President Basescu said on Wednesday that Romania will support the European Council for immediate changes to regulations on the excessive deficit procedure, version requiring no ratification in the Member States and then reverse to resort to changing the EU Treaty.
Basescu said that the change at this point would require Treaty ratification by parliament or referendum in each Member State, which would take up to two years. The President said that the current situation, the EU needs urgent solutions and showed that the best option would be amending the protocol governing the excessive deficit.
The President also said that euro area Member State with a debt of over 60% of GDP should submit schedules to reduce the indicator below the threshold, and especially the EU and the euro area should commit to respect threshold of 3% of GDP budget deficit by adding it to the Constitution.
He said that Member States should establish national mechanisms for automatic correction of the deficit, ie if the budget fails to fall into a deficit within 3% of GDP, each government should have established mechanisms to increase revenues and decrease costs, separately or combined.
The crisis in the euro area gradually degenerates into recession because of low confidence and challenging conditions in credit markets, a situation which directly affect Romania's exports. However, the domestic banking system depends largely on the "health" of European banks.
Unprecedented situation and question the timing of euro adoption in the states of Central and Eastern Europe, the consequences of the crisis in this regard is difficult to predict.
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