The investment report 2012, Chapter risks, analysts at Deutsche Bank shows investors how to guard the main dangers.



Leading the top 10 biggest threats to the global economy in 2012, DB puts out Greece in the euro area. To avoid the strong movements of financial markets, investors should move in assets denominated in dollars, gold, yen or pounds. German bank analysts see a possibility to leave the euro reduced Greece, but say that "the unthinkable is not unthinkable." If this happens, residents of peripheral countries would rush to pull money from banks.



A funding crisis in Italy and Spain, triggered by lack of confidence and a major recession could lead the two countries in a position not to find liquidity. The two countries accumulate more than 30% of euro area public debt (more than 2,700 billion) and are "too big to be saved and too large to be dropped."



DB recommends investors to be aware of the private sector and banking in Spain, while the Italians to be aware of the political sector and weak economic growth.



Germans believe that the negative developments in these two countries put under threat the entire global financial system and the fate of the euro.



They expect an aggressive response of the European Central Bank and central banks of large underarm even the world.



As a method of hedging (hedging), DB recommends measures mentioned above, plus short positions on banks' subordinated bonds and the French and British currencies of countries in Eastern Europe, "which tend to track the euro, but not marked risks breaking the euro area as much as the euro itself. " They cite the example of the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint, which historically have proved that lost value faster than the euro in times of stress in Europe, which have a shallow depth and less liquid foreign exchange market. Moreover, the benefits of short positions in currencies of Eastern Europe can be multiplied and betting on appreciation sequel Israeli and South African Rand, which tend to move inversely to Europe.



Other big risks for 2012 include demotion U.S. / one nine recession forced landing of the Chinese economy (growth of only 5-6%), France's demotion from AAA (quite possible), delevreging (dezîndatorare) excessive in Europe, crisis liquidity in the commodity-based financing (commodity trade finance) you reduce the number of safe assets (Safe Havens), strong growth of U.S. pension deficit and economic growth than expected - investors have already taken positions to reduce risk, thus good growth would catch many unprepared.