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Europe has failed. Euro summit decisions have not convinced anyone
Like any summit in Europe, and if last, optimism has not kept only one day. For European leaders have not really decided anything, but have removed from naphthalene laws in force and which promise to them and apply, and because the only measure that could think was for Europe to borrow IMF to lend Europe.
Historic summit last week again disappointed. Some of the measures announced, especially those who have a sense reinforce discipline, but the problem of Europe at this time not related to the lack of fiscal discipline - because it did this - but the credibility of the system and the short and medium term prospects of countries.
Thus, in a time when the euro area is expected to fall wholly or partly in recession, limiting by law the deficit and automatic sanctions are a promise that something will not happen, but does nothing for what happens now.
Paradoxically, bailouturile last year and this year, addressed to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, were accused of doing nothing for long-term problems of these countries and are only a short term palliative.
Measures such as the IMF lends European countries, which also collect some money in the world, and then borrows European countries, is at least strange. Not to mention that if Romania was obliged to contribute to the 50 billion non-euro countries imposed - President Traian Basescu gave assurances that it is not the case - the situation was even more absurd, because it would have meant IMF borrowing, from which we borrow from our turn. However, the 150 billion they have to borrow euro countries and the IMF are based on contributions PIIGS countries, although not yet know its level.
Everyone with an interest in massive intervention of the financial system expects the European Central Bank, which, although announced some measures of monetary relaxation, did not give the green light presses of money. Basically, investors holding sovereign debt problems of countries would like to have the opportunity to get rid of it good cost offering for sale the ECB.
That has not happened yet, and euro leaders gave another term in March, when they make a new mega summit where they said to clarify this historic summit.
Now at least recognize that there is a problem. We are but at the time the largest companies in the euro area are preparing for the collapse of the single currency, which is itself a very bad thing to trust in this project.
And let's look at the bond market, the first in which I see symptoms of the crisis. If decisions EU leaders would have a significant impact on bond investors would not be restras holdings with losses on Italy and Spain. And yet they did.
Italian bonds with a maturity of 10 years to beat the bear returns again to 7%, despite the opposition of the ECB, which occurs in the secondary market. Are 6.7%, after reaching 6.8% at the meeting on Monday. Last week were below 6%. 5 years broke the threshold of 7% to 7.1%.
Spain's debt yields 10 years and they jumped over 6%, after p week ago reached a minimum of 5.12%.
Investors bought bonds with two hands again German, which yields the beat to 2% at 10 years. This shows that confidence is deteriorating again in Europe.
ECB has a self-imposed limit of 20 billion euro bond purchases weekly Italian and Spanish. So far it has never been fully used, but the potential is like a year to buy more than 1,000 billion. But the current system, where purchases are sterilized, the maximum target is only a hypothetical, because it fails to collect the money from the market place. I already had a call for withdrawal of liquidity from a week that has failed.
May the bank to keep it until utimul time when I announce that the Fed model and started the Quantitative easing, because the financing needs of Italy and Spain in 2012 will surpass any effort of austerity, if the interest remain at high levels.
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