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Germany, the reason behind the outbreak of euro crisis?
Germany, the largest and most powerful economy in the European Union, is the reason that led to the outbreak of the crisis facing the euro area today, said a renowned British economist.
There Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal are responsible for the outbreak of the state debt crisis that threatens to throw Europe into a new recession, but Germany, the EU's biggest economy, said John Weeks, professor emeritus at the University of London.
"The problem in Europe is Germany. Germany's giant trade surplus trade deficit is equivalent to most European countries, "he said, quoted by Turkish newspaper" Hurriyet ".
The German government has supported a policy of keeping wages low, and this caused the state to be more competitive. Thus, from a trade deficit amounting to 33 billion dollars in 2000 to a trade surplus worth of $ 200 billion today, while most European countries running trade deficits, said Weeks.
"All claims that the Greeks are lazy and leave early retirement, or the Italians work less (than the Germans) are not well founded," he says. Italians have worked 38 hours per week in 2009, and the Greeks - 28.5 hours, while the average was 35.7 hours Germans, the British economist said.
Germany's trade surplus may be the result of the market, but rather mercantile policies pursued by the government, Weeks explains. "Therefore we are now facing a crisis," he added.
If Germany does not reduce its trade surplus, other countries will be duty and harder to pay for imports and encourage foreign investment, lower wages will be to achieve an inflation rate lower than that of Germany, says Weeks. This suggests that Germany will export less and import more.
"Germany is not prepared to do that," he continues.
Eurozone collapse scenarios are multiplying every day. With them, an idea is repeated almost without end: Germany would benefit from this scenario. Or even would not suffer as much as others. But economists say that the German state would be perhaps the most hit by this situation.
Speculation on the collapse of the euro area increases by the day, as well as the total abolition of the single currency. In most scenarios it seems that Germany would not have much to lose. In reality, the consequences would be disastrous for the European Union and its largest economy, Germany, noted German publication "Der Spiegel".
In no other country euro skepticism is higher than in Germany. On the one hand, it is understandable, given that Germany is the main contributor to the emergency rescue packages to countries with problems. On the other hand, seems less absurd, given the high level in the country took advantage of the euro.
Germany is a strong exporting state, and about 40% of its exports go to other euro area countries.
Last week came news that German exports will exceed the threshold value of 1,000 billion for the first time. But even companies that now enjoy regular success are able to export products to the lowest and most stable prices. The euro has made these two things possible.
The single currency has eliminated exchange rate fluctuations in the euro area and euro would appreciate less than a German mark (the rate is lower, the state is better for export). In other words, due to Germany's Euro prices remain competitive.
The result was a boom in exports. Between 1993 and 1999, exports to Germany increased by 3%. But between 1999 and 2003, exports increased by 6.5%. Between 2003 and 2007, after the introduction of the euro, German exports rose by a record rate of 9%.
Membership in the euro area has brought Germany profits between 50 and 60 billion only two years, according to a study by investment bank KfW, owned by the federal government.
If Germany would leave the euro area, this advantage would disappear suddenly export market. A German brand reintroduced would appreciate rapidly against the euro - UBS chief economist believes that an appreciation of 40% is most likely.
The result is that export products will become more expensive. If a powerful country would leave the euro area, write Deo, "it will eventually be forced to stop exporting industry." German economy, it would be true doomsday scenario.
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